A new poll shows dismal support for Putin’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine – a possibility Putin almost immediately reinforced he is considering.
A vast majority of the Russian population would not support their government’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine even as an act of desperation, undermining a deterrent President Vladimir Putin has used against Kyiv’s Western backers as recently as Friday.
Of the respondents to the new poll from the independent Levada Center, 86% said that nuclear weapons should not be used in Ukraine under any circumstances. Only 10% of the 1,600 respondents in both rural and urban environments queried at the end of May said that they could possibly condone the use of nuclear weapons.
Opposition to Putin’s threats of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – which the U.S. for months has blasted “as irresponsible and reckless” and “cavalier” – is surprisingly universal across age groups in Russia, including among those who lived through Soviet times. More than 87% of both 18- to 24-year-olds and those above 55 oppose the use of nuclear weapons. The most accepting demographic is those between the ages of 40 and 55 of whom 84% opposed their use.
Levada assesses that overall the difference in opinion among the demographics is “minor.”
The polling center – considered the most accurate for insights regarding the public reaction to the Kremlin’s increasingly autocratic governance – left open-ended the main question it posed to respondents, who are typically wary of publicly criticizing Putin’s regime.
“Some believe that in order to win in Ukraine Russia must use nuclear weapons, others believe that it is impossible to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances,” it posed, according to a translation. “And which of these points of view do you most adhere to?”
Putin himself, however, expressed on Friday that he remains undeterred by any opposition to the use of any weapons in his arsenals.
“The use of extreme means is possible if there is a threat to Russian statehood. And in this case, of course, we will use all the forces and means at the disposal of the Russian state,” Putin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in response to a question about nuclear weapons use.
And, predictably, he referenced that the U.S. is the only nuclear-armed country to have employed them in battle.
“Such a precedent has been created – created by the United States,” he said, according to a translation.
Western officials and analysts have fretted in recent months about whether to take seriously Putin’s increasingly aggressive nuclear saber-rattling. He has ordered the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons to Belarus, one of its sole remaining loyal post-Soviet allies and has engaged in other provocative behavior, such as deploying ships armed with hypersonic missiles – which U.S. analysts believe could carry a nuclear warhead – into the Atlantic.
Less catastrophic, but equally perilous for Ukraine, others fear that the mere threats of using nuclear weapons could amount to enough to force Kyiv’s allies in Europe to begin backing away from staunch support for its military, particularly as it escalates its spring offensive.
Other analysts tell U.S. News the possibility Putin would use nuclear weapons is remote, but not impossible.
“The likelihood of Russia choosing – or Putin choosing – to use nuclear weapons directly against the West is astronomically low. It should not even be seriously considered at this stage,” Katherine Lawlor, senior intelligence analyst at the independent Institute for the Study of War, which has fastidiously tracked Russia’s military movements since it first invaded Ukraine, said in February.
“Putin would love it if Western leaders believed that he might. He is many things, but he is not suicidal,” Lawlor said. She adds that Putin ultimately does not want war with NATO – particularly given the current state of the Russian army. “He couldn’t even win a conventional war in Ukraine.”
Lawlor adds these circumstances could change if Russia feels it is squarely in a defensive position and needs to prevent “all-out disaster” – a scenario with renewed significance in light of Ukraine’s offensive.
“You have to think about the human response to nuclear use,” she said, describing the effect on a Ukrainian soldier who witnesses a rising mushroom cloud several miles away toward the front lines. “The Russians may assume it would have a devastating effect on the morale of the surviving Ukrainian forces.”
Tags: Vladimir Putin, Russia, polls, nuclear weapons, nuclear power, Ukraine
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